Abstract

Liquefaction-induced lateral spreading can induce significant deformations and damage in existing structures, such as ports, bridges, and pipes. Past earthquakes have caused this phenomenon in coastal areas and rivers in many parts of the world. Current lateral spreading prediction models tend to either overestimate or underestimate the actual displacements by a factor of two or more when applied to large subduction earthquake events. The purpose of this study was to identify ground motion intensity measures and soil parameters that better correlate with observed lateral spreading under large-magnitude (Mw >= 7.5) subduction earthquakes that have occurred in countries like Chile, Japan, and Peru. A numerical approach was first validated against centrifuge and historical cases and then used to generate parametric models on which statistical analysis was applied. Our results show that cumulative absolute velocity (CAV), Housner intensity (HI), and sustained maximum velocity (SMV) have a reasonably good correlation with lateral spreading for the analyzed cases.