VLT-LUT: Modeling the Very Long-term Evolution of Cities in 300 years

Ariel Castillo; Donoso, Pedro; Ricardo de la Paz Guala

Abstract

This work models the cities’ evolution to understand the very long-term impacts of urban planning. The cities' complexity is modeled with VLT-LUT, a tool that simulates the evolution of land use and transportation and their interaction in the very long term, based on urban microeconomic theory. Preliminary simulation results, of an artificial city with a very simplified road network scenario and no other policies, show that the market forces yield symmetrical cities, but symmetry is highly sensitive to the modeling process. Another result is that land rents evolve super-linearly with population, in line with previous empirical and theoretical research.

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Fecha de publicación: 2021