Abstract

Objectives: (1) To describe changes in objective measures of physical capability between ages 53 and 60-64 years; (2) to investigate the associations of behavioural risk factors (obesity, physical inactivity, smoking) and number of health conditions (range 0-4: hand osteoarthritis (OA); knee OA; severe respiratory symptoms; other disabling or life-threatening conditions (ie, cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes)) at age 53 years with these changes. Design: Nationally representative prospective birth cohort study. Setting: England, Scotland and Wales. Participants: Up to 2093 men and women from the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development, who have been followed-up since birth in 1946, and underwent physical capability assessments performed by nurses following standard protocols in 1999 and 2006-2010. Main outcome measures: Grip strength and chair rise speed were assessed at ages 53 and 60-64 years. Four categories of change in grip strength and chair rise speed were identified: decline, stable high, stable low, a reference group who maintained physical capability within a 'normal' range. Results: Less healthy behavioural risk scores and an increase in the number of health conditions experienced were associated in a stepwise fashion with increased risk of decline in physical capability, and also of having low levels at baseline and remaining low. For example, the sex and mutually adjusted relative-risk ratios (95% CI) of being in the stable low versus reference category of chair rise speed were 1.58 (1.35-1.86) and 1.97 (1.57-2.47) per 1 unit change in behavioural risk score and health indicator count, respectively. Conclusions: These findings provide evidence of the associations of a range of modifiable factors with age-related changes in physical capability. They suggest the need to target multiple risk factors at least as early as mid-life when aiming to promote maintenance and prevent decline in physical capability in later life.