Abstract

The placement of sentinel birds in a commercial poultry flock infected with low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) may be an effective way of detecting subsequent change in the isolate to a high pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV). Data collected from the 2002 Chilean HPAIV outbreak, along with information from a literature review of laboratory studies involving A/chicken/Chile/176822/02 (H7N3/LP) and A/chicken/Chile/184240-1/02 (H7N3/HP) viruses, were used to construct a computer simulation model. Mortality rates of the original LPAIV-infected population and the sentinel population were compared to detect the presence of HPAIV. A total of 12 increased mortality threshold scenarios were examined, using one-day absolute (2, 3, or 4 birds) or relative (0.5, 1.0, or 1.5%) mortality thresholds, and two-day absolute (1, 2, or 3 birds) or relative (0.25, 0.50, or 1.00%) mortality thresholds, to indicate the change from LPAIV to HPAIV in the sentinel and original populations, respectively. Results showed that following a one-day approach, threshold mortalities occurred on average at 7.35, 7.82, and 8.17 (0.5, 1.0, or 1.5%) and 6.21, 6.38, and 6.45 (2, 3, or 4 birds) days after the first infectious case for the original and sentinel populations, respectively. The two-day approach delayed the occurrence of threshold mortalities, on average, to 7.64, 8.05, and 8.62 (0.25, 0.50, or 1.00%) and 6.86. 6.78, and 7.23 (1, 2, or 3 birds) days after the first infectious case for the original and sentinel populations, respectively. Although, significant (p0.10) differences were observed among different combinations of detection times for the original and sentinel populations, the use of sentinel birds has a maximum mean advantage, over monitoring mortality exclusively in the original population, of 1.96 and 1.84 days for one- and two-day threshold moralities, respectively. Additionally, the early warning system based on a sentinel vs. original population presented a decrease of the probabilities of a false alarm, from 0.04-0.45 to 0.01-0.10%. These findings may be used by decision makers to evaluate the risk of not depopulating a flock infected with a H5 or H7 LPAIV strain and the benefit of using sentinel birds as an early warning system of a change to HPAIV. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.