Abstract

The concept of risk became ubiquitous with the development of modern sciences and its new perspectives on human agency and the possibilities for knowledge. Today, any damage or losses due to extreme natural events are seen primarily as a product of human action and social dynamics. Congruently, the “Modern Dream” (Zinn, Understanding risk-taking. Palgrave Macmillan, 2020) includes the promise to rely on evidence-based decision-making, which usually means risk quantification and modeling. However, decision-making is generally messier and more complicated in practice. Moreover, quantification presents challenges for risk communication since models, particularly their assumptions and uncertainty, are not always easy to comprehend for the public and policy-makers. In this chapter, we explore these issues by examining the role of quantification and modeling during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Chile. Using the COVID-19 epidemic as a case study, we analyze some of the challenges and limitations of the risk colonization of decision-making during disasters drawing on various data sources. These sources include 26 interviews with scientists who have been part of modeling initiatives, an analysis of the discussions at four COVID-19 modeling webinars, and a collection of various documentary sources (press, official documents, and scientific reports).