Abstract

Climate change is a global phenomenon that will generate profound changes in biodiversity in the near future. Studies have reported negative impacts of climate change for South American amphibians; however, for Andean species such as Rhinella spinulosa, the potential response to the effects of climate change is unknown. Using ecological niche models, we estimate the potential distribution of R. spinulosa, identifying the environmental variables that explain its distribution and projecting predictions in climate change scenarios to elucidate their impact on the distribution pattern. The results revealed that the variables of elevation (48.7%), mean temperature of the hottest quarter (44.2%), and topographic humidity index (3.2%) were the most important contributors to the model and are predictors of the distribution of R. spinulosa. The most suitable areas for its distribution are its current range, extending to the north, as well as on the western Andean slope and Argentine Patagonia. Predictions for the future (year 2080) under two scenarios (benign and severe) coincide with the distribution predicted for the current one. Climatic conditions will not be considerably different in the distribution area of R. spinulosa, which may be due to the buffer effect of the mountain range. However, freshwater ecosystems will be more at risk from climate change, which could affect the reproductive success and survival of amphibians. Therefore, we recommend evaluating water availability at a local scale to understand the potential changes in the geographic distribution of R. spinulosa.