Abstract

This study was aimed to build a multi-station automatic classification system for volcanic seismic signatures such as hybrid, long period, tremor, tectonic, and volcano–tectonic events. This system was based on a probabilistic model made using transfer learning, which has, as the main tool, a pre-trained convolutional network named AlexNet. We designed five experiments using different datasets with data that were real, synthetic, two different combinations of these (combined 1 and combined 2), and a balanced subset without synthetic data. The experiment presented the highest scores when a process of data augmentation was introduced into processing sequence. Thus, the lack of real data in some classes (imbalance) dramatically affected the quality of the results, because the learning step (training) was overfitted to the more numerous classes. To test the model stability with variable inputs, we implemented a k-fold cross-validation procedure. Under this approach, the results reached high predictive performance, considering that only the percentage of recognition of the tectonic events (TC) class was partially affected. The results obtained showed the performance of the probabilistic model, reaching high scores over different test datasets. The most valuable benefit of using this technique was that the use of volcano seismic signals from multiple stations provided a more generalizable model which, in the near future, can be extended to multi-volcano database systems. The impact of this work is significant in the evaluation of hazard and risk by monitoring the dynamic evolution of volcanic centers, which is crucial for understanding the stages in a volcano’s eruptive cycle.