Abstract

Rapid urbanisation, economic growth, and urban spatial development in developing countries, such as Iran, have resulted in tremendous loss of green cover and associated ecological problems. Any effort to achieve sustainable urban development should be supported by recognising and evaluating the ecological health of vegetation cover. This study investigates vegetation cover reduction and changes in the Tehran Metropolis, Iran and identifies the most important factors influencing the observed changes. The aim of this study is two-fold: first, to assess the spatio-temporal changes in vegetation cover in Tehran between 1990 and 2020, and second, to identify the factors contributing to the changes. The Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is used as an indicator of green cover. The spatial and statistical data used in this study were extracted from Landsat satellite imagery and the last approved Master Plan of Tehran (2006). Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and geographical modelling methods were employed to analyse vegetation cover in all municipal districts of the Tehran metropolis. The results show that the vegetation density in the Tehran metropolis decreased significantly (from 38,936.80 hectares to 4663.23 hectares) between 1990 and 2020. The expansion of construction lands and the increase of population density were the most significant factors affecting the reduction in vegetation cover in Tehran. In contrast, the growth of industrial units in the urban areas of Tehran had no significant relationship with vegetation cover. The results of this study can help urban planners understand the significant drivers of vegetation loss and identify appropriate interventions to prevent it.