Modelling geographical and built-environment attributes as predictors of human vulnerability during tsunami evacuations: a multi-case-study and paths to improvement
Abstract
Evacuation is the most important and effective method to save human lives during a tsunami. In this respect, challenges exist in developing quantitative analyses of the relationships between the evacuation potential and the built-environment and geographical attributes of coastal locations. This paper proposes a computer-based modelling approach (including inundation, evacuation, and built-environment metrics), followed by multivariate regressive analysis, to estimate how those attributes might influence the expected tsunami death ratios of seven Chilean coastal cities. We obtained, for the examined variables, their average values to different thresholds of the death ratio. Also, our statistical analysis allowed us to compare the relative importance of each metric, showing that the maximum flood, the straightness of the street network, the total route length, and the travel time can have a significant impact on the expected death ratios. Moreover, we suggest that these results could lead to spatial planning guidelines for developing new urban areas into exposed territories (if this expansion cannot be restricted or discouraged) or retrofitting existing ones, with the final aim of enhancing evacuation and therefore increasing resilience.
Más información
Título según WOS: | ID WOS:000847716500001 Not found in local WOS DB |
Título de la Revista: | NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES |
Volumen: | 22 |
Número: | 9 |
Editorial: | Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH |
Fecha de publicación: | 2022 |
Página de inicio: | 2857 |
Página final: | 2878 |
DOI: |
10.5194/nhess-22-2857-2022 |
Notas: | ISI |