Abstract

Shallow landslides in road cut-slopes cause traffic disruptions, especially during rainy seasons. Even when the cut slopes are planned for saturation conditions, the variability and uncertainty of the explanatory variables of slope stability combined with pore pressure variation due to rainfall determine the need to probabilistic model the slope stability, considering the effects of rainfall intensity and duration. It is also necessary to know the magnitude of road platform blockage induced by slope failure, which is especially important for rural roads. This paper proposes a method for evaluating the probability of cut-slope landslides and traffic interruption. For this purpose, first-order reliability analysis and a Monte Carlo simulation were used to analyze various slope and rainfall scenarios. The analysis found 24 failure probability curves that were obtained for slope inclination, rainfall intensity, and rainfall duration. Probability values were obtained to achieve "low", "moderate", and "extensive" damage states in terms of roadway blocked due to slope slides and the relationship between roadway blocking width to slope height.