Data-based wildfire risk model for Mediterranean ecosystems - case study of the Concepcion metropolitan area in central Chile

JAQUE-CASTILLO, EDILIA DEL CARMEN; FERNANDEZ-TABALES, ALFONSO; Fuentes Robles, Rodrigo; Ojeda, Carolina G.

Abstract

Wildfire risk is latent in Chilean metropolitan areas characterized by the strong presence of wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs). The Concepcion metropolitan area (CMA) constitutes one of the most representative samples of that dynamic. The wildfire risk in the CMA was addressed by establishing a model of five categories (near zero, low, moderate, high, and very high) that represent discernible thresholds in fire occurrence, using geospatial data and satellite images describing anthropic-biophysical factors that trigger fires. Those were used to deliver a model of fire hazard using machine learning algorithms, including principal component analysis and Kohonen self-organizing maps in two experimental scenarios: only native forest and only forestry plantation. The model was validated using fire hotspots obtained from the forestry government organization. The results indicated that 12.3 % of the CMA's surface area has a high and very high risk of a forest fire, 29.4 % has a moderate risk, and 58.3 % has a low and very low risk. Lastly, the observed main drivers that have deepened this risk were discussed: first, the evident proximity between the increasing urban areas with exotic forestry plantations and, second, climate change that threatens triggering more severe and large wildfires because of human activities.

Más información

Título según WOS: Data-based wildfire risk model for Mediterranean ecosystems - case study of the Concepcion metropolitan area in central Chile
Título según SCOPUS: ID SCOPUS_ID:85120890876 Not found in local SCOPUS DB
Título de la Revista: NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
Volumen: 21
Editorial: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
Fecha de publicación: 2021
Página de inicio: 3663
Página final: 3678
DOI:

10.5194/NHESS-21-3663-2021

Notas: ISI, SCOPUS - WOS