Abstract

Modeling and design with parametric and model-form uncertainty quantification is an alternative to conventional model-based design approaches as it improves the existing modeling practice and validates the model used in the design of power converters. However, in the case of modular multilevel converters (MMCs), uncertainty quantification, as the main step in this design methodology, becomes challenging due to the inherent complexity and sheer size of such units. In this article, these limitations are discussed and a systematic study for developing a simplified testbed for uncertainty quantification of an MMC is presented. To this end, first sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the key parameters whose tolerances contribute the most to the parametric uncertainty of the selected design variables. Second, the effect of increasing the number of power cells in each arm on the estimated total uncertainty, and thus the predictive capability of the MMC simulation models for medium- and high-voltage applications is studied. A simplified testbed for model validation of the power cell in the design of an MMC is developed accordingly. The development of this simplified testbed allows validating the models used and estimating uncertainties in the design with less computational cost and hardware prototyping.