Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to project carbon neutrality scenarios considering uncertainty. For this purpose, it is proposed the design and implementation of a new methodology that allows to recognize a wider representation of the possible future scenarios, representing in a finite number of simulations what could happen when simulating all possible combinations, considering the uncertainty ranges. The methodology developed in this report was applied to a case study and the results were compared with a previously developed methodology. The results obtained consist of an increase in the uncertainty range of 16% of the cumulative Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions in the period, 30% in the cumulative investment cost, 11% in the cumulative operational cost and 43% in the GHG emissions in the year 2050. In other words, the uncertainty range was increased by 12 million tons for the year 2050. Finally, the range of uncertainty was expanded by increasing the universe of possible scenarios. At the same time, the proposed methodology allows the search for significant scenarios and parameters in models under uncertainty to be oriented.