Abstract

Assessing vulnerability using semi-quantitative approaches provide an opportunity to analyze conditions of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of socio-ecological systems concerning climate change drivers and anthropogenic factors. We assessed the vulnerability of the small-scale pink shrimp fishery of Castillos and Rocha lagoons, two coastal Uruguayan ecosystems of the southwest Atlantic, considering social factors and climate change drivers which affect atmospheric-oceanographic conditions regionally and locally. Using a risk approach, we evaluated the ecological system's exposure to environmental drivers. Then we estimated the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of fishers and the local community (social system). High vulnerability found for this fishery results from a combination of large-scale environmental drivers impacting the ecological system, and social factors causing high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity of the social system. High risk level with adverse ecosystem effects triggered by climate change drivers acting on the distribution of this migratory crustacean in the southwest Atlantic region could promote adverse consequences on harvest duration and shrimp catch levels in the Uruguayan coastal lagoons. Fishers and their communities showed high sensitivity to a set of (demographic, economic, governance, cultural and technological) factors. The social system of both lagoons showed a low adaptive capacity to prevent social impacts or to mitigate climate change hazards. A broad set of social indicators was identified in Rocha lagoon to enhance fishers and community resilience, while the indicator set was narrower in Castillos lagoon. Lastly, weak governance, dormant fisheries laws, non-compliance of fisheries regulations and lack of climate early warning monitoring hamper the adaptability of these small-scale fisher communities under global change scenarios. Comparative evaluation of spatial, environmental and social settings between lagoons can offer lessons for upscaling the assessment and adaptation measures to other smallscale fisheries regionally and globally.