Abstract

Author summaryAs the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread across Colombia, studies highlighting the intensity of the pandemic have become imperative for appropriate resource allocation and informing public health policies. In this study we utilize mathematical models to infer the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 at the regional and national level as well as short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory. Moreover, we examine the geographic heterogeneity of the COVID-19 case incidence in Colombia along with the analysis of mobility and social media trends in relation to the observed COVID-19 case incidence in the country. The estimates of reproduction numbers at the national and regional level show a decline in disease transmission as of October 31, 2021. Moreover, the 30-day ahead short-term forecasts for the most recent time-period (October 2-October 31, 2021) generated using the mathematical models needs to be interpreted with caution as the single peak models point towards a sustained decline in case incidence contrary to the sub-epidemic wave model. Nevertheless, the spatial analysis in Colombia shows distinct variations in incidence rate patterns across different departments which can be grouped into four distinct clusters. Moreover, the social media and mobility trends also explain the occurrence of case resurgences over time.