Abstract

Water scarcity is a pressing global issue driven by increasing water demands and changing climate conditions. Based on novel estimates of water availability and water use in Chile, we examine the challenges and risks associated with groundwater (GW) withdrawals in the country's central-north region (27–35° S), where extreme water stress conditions prevail. As total water use within a basin approaches the renewable freshwater resources, the dependence on GW reserves intensifies in unsustainable ways. This overuse has consequences that extend beyond mere resource depletion, manifesting into environmental degradation, societal conflict, and economic costs. We argue that the “Day Zero” scenario, often concealed by the uncertain attributes of GW resources, calls for a reconsideration of water allocation rules and a broader recognition of the long-term implications of unsustainable GW use. Our results offer insights for regions worldwide facing similar water scarcity challenges and emphasize the importance of proactive and sustainable water management strategies.