Abstract

Objectives: This study evaluates the effects of COVID-19 lockdowns, differentiated by their stringency, on the sales of Chilean businesses across various size categories and industries throughout 2020 and 2021. It also explores the role of the vaccination campaign and the implementation of the Mobility Pass in mitigating the negative economic effects of stringent containment measures. Methods: The study uses administrative data from the Chilean Internal Revenue Service (SII), examining sales across different business sizes and industries, from March 2020 to December 2021. Through an econometric analysis, we estimate the effects of lockdowns on business sales during two distinct periods: initial reliance on dynamic non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) pre-vaccine, and a subsequent stage characterized by high vaccine uptake and reduced NPI stringency. Results: Lockdowns significantly reduced sales across all business sizes and most industries during the first period, with microenterprises and certain service sectors experiencing the highest decline. The national vaccination campaign and the introduction of the Mobility Pass in the second period appears to have mitigated the negative effects of lockdowns, primarily benefiting micro and small firms. Conclusions: The study highlights the trade-offs between health and economic outcomes during the pandemic, stressing the importance to alleviate mobility restrictions post-vaccine rollout to ease the economic strain on businesses. The findings call for targeted support measures for MSMEs and vulnerable industries affected by NPIs.