Abstract

This article proposes an original probabilistic modelling methodology named Virtual Standby (VSB), which enables a practical simulation, analysis, and evaluation of the impact on availability and reliability achieved by potential buffering policies on the performance of complex production systems. Virtual Standby (VSB) corresponds to a design and operational characteristic where some machines under a failure scenario are capable to provide for a limited time, continuity to the subsystems downstream before suffering delay which is currently not considered when assessing availability. This feature plays a relevant role on the propagation of the effect of a failure; indeed, it could prevent the propagation by guaranteeing the isolation time needed to recover from its failure, controlling and reducing the production losses downstream. A case study of the preliminary treatment process of a wastewater treatment facility (WWTF) is developed bearing in mind the systemic behaviour in the event of a failure and the specific features of each equipment. VSB is a big advantage for the representation of this complex processes because, among other things, it considers the impact of buffering policies on the perceived availability of the system. This model allows determining different production levels, with a better and easier fitting of the reliability, availability, and production forecast of the process. Finally, the comparison between the VSB simulation results with traditional procedures that do not consider the operational continuity under a failure scenario confirms the strength and precision of the proposal for complex systems.