Abstract

Deforestation and degradation are among the main sources of climate-change-inducing greenhouse gas emissions. Implementing sustainable forest management and conservation programs, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD+), requires a forest monitoring system and carbon inventory to define reference emissions. Most REDD+ projects focus on dense forests, with limited studies conducted in arid and semi-arid regions where shrubs dominate. Despite diverse vegetation formations, these areas are often overlooked for their carbon sequestration potential. This study estimated gross and net deforestation and degradation of forest formation and from devegetation and degradation of shrub formation in Norte Grande (Far North), Chile, from 1998 to 2018 using remote sensing satellite imagery and projected out to 2118. The carbon equivalent (Ce) content of forest and shrub formations and their associated processes’ CO2 equivalent (CO2-e) emissions were also estimated. The results showed that the total Ce content in shrubs was higher than in forests because of the larger area. Although deforestation/devegetation and degradation tended to decrease across the study period, they will continue to affect forests and shrubs in the future, reaching a deforestation rate of 21.82 and 393.28 ha y−1 by 2118, respectively, and an annual degradation rate of 9535.31 and 255,850.65 kg m−2, respectively. Therefore, arid and semi-arid zones and shrub formations should be integrated into REDD+ strategies to promote their protection, given their potential to increase carbon reserves.