Abstract

Background and objective. Prophylaxis therapy is indicated in cirrhotic patients with large esophageal varices or small varices with red wale signs (high risk esophageal varices; HREV). Endoscopic surveillance to detect HREV is currently recommended. The objective of this study is to identify non-invasive predictors of HREV in cirrhotic patients. Design and methods. Adult cirrhotic patients without previous variceal bleeding were prospectively included. All patients underwent a complete biochemical workup, upper digestive endoscopy, and ultrasonographic measurement of spleen bipolar diameter. Platelet count/spleen diameter ratio (PC/SD) was calculated for all patients. The association of these variables with the presence of HREV in upper endoscopy was tested using univariate and multivariate analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed for variables associated with HREV. Results. Sixty-seven patients were included. The prevalence rate of HREV was 50%. Age, gender (female), platelet count, spleen diameter, PC/ SD ratio, total bilirrubin, prothrombin activity (INR), Child-Pugh score, clinical and ultrasonographic ascites were significantly associated with presence of HREV in univariate analysis. Age and PC/SD ratio were the parameters independently associated with HREV in a multivariate analysis, with OR 8.81 (CI 95%: 1.7-44.9) and OR 11.21 (CI 95%: 2.8-44.6) respectively. A PC/SD ratio cut-off value under 830.8 predicted HREV with 76.9% sensitivity, 74.2% specificity and 77.8% negative predictive value (ROC curve area: 0.78). Conclusions. The PC/SD ratio was significantly associated with HREV, but with suboptimal sensitivity and specificity. Therefore, the results of this study do not support the routine clinical use of PC/SD ratio for screening of HREV.