Abstract

This article proposes a structured methodology to support the decision making in scenarios where multiple variables or selection criteria intervene, and where the criterion and experience of the decision maker is highly important, as it is the case in the disaster risk management field. This methodology combines tools of hierarchy of information such as the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Criticality Analysis (CA), as well as the application of the Utility Function, which allows to combine qualitative and quantitative variables and to obtain the relevance of each one. From this, a scenario-analysis is performed to support the decision making process. As a case study, the methodology is applied to assist the decision processes of the Ministry of Public Works of Chile, through the modeling of the present risk in routes and communes exposed to the traffic of heavy and dangerous cargo, on the road network of the region of Valparaíso.