Abstract

Nitroaromatic compounds (NAs) are widely used in industrial applications but pose significant genotoxic risks, necessitating accurate mutagenicity prediction for chemical safety assessments. This study integrates conceptual density functional theory (CDFT) descriptors with explainable no-code machine learning (ML) models to predict NA mutagenicity based on Ames test results. Following OECD QSAR guidelines, feature selection and model development were performed using decision-tree-based algorithms (Random Tree, JCHAID*, SPAARC) and multilayer perceptrons (MLPs). These models exhibited high predictive accuracy (internal: >80%, kappa = 0.21-0.37; external: similar to 90%, kappa = 0.41-0.62) with strong interpretability. The study also explores the role of metabolic activation and aqueous-phase descriptors, evaluating a novel electronic analog to LogP (LogQP) to assess hydrophobicity-mutagenicity relationships. Results demonstrate that aqueous-phase electronic properties and electrophilicity descriptors outperform vacuum-based methods in mutagenicity prediction. The combination of CDFT descriptors with shallow ML models proves to be a robust, interpretable, and accessible framework for predictive toxicology. This approach enhances chemical risk assessment and bridges computational chemistry with toxicology for regulatory applications.