Abstract

In the mountainous and foothill areas of Santiago, Chile, debris flows and debris floods have been recurrent over recent decades, triggered by short-duration, high-intensity summer rainfall events. These events have caused significant damage to infrastructure and have affected the population, including loss of human lives. This study assesses the susceptibility to debris flow and debris flood generation in the Arrayán and Gualtatas stream basins, located in the Metropolitan Region, using satellite and cartographic data. A Susceptibility Index (SI) was determined through the analysis of 14 conditioning factors, grouped into three main categories: geology, geomorphology, and soil conditions. The weighting and ranking of each factor’s importance were carried out using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results, presented in a susceptibility map, indicate that 60.78% of the study area exhibits low to very low susceptibility, 24.64% moderate susceptibility, and 14.58% high to very high susceptibility, concentrated in stream headwaters, steep slopes, and areas with unconsolidated deposits. Recent debris flow events that have reached urban areas coincide with high-susceptibility zones, validating the methodology and cartographic products, which can support land-use planning and risk management efforts.