Abstract

Protected areas (PAs) are increasingly exposed to anthropogenic pressures under global change scenarios, with surrounding land subdivision and land use/land cover change (LULCC) dynamics often undermining their conservation goals and intensifying demand for basic services such as water availability. This study analyzed the buffer zone around Cerro Castillo National Park in Chilean Patagonia to assess the evolution of rural private properties, considering their subdivision, LULCC, and legal water demand dynamics. Using cadastral records, Landsat 8 imagery, and official water rights databases, we quantified property subdivision and analyzed LULCC and water rights distribution patterns through spatial overlap analysis. Results indicate a nearly fourfold increase in subdivisions between 2011 and 2023, with 304 properties divided into 3237 units occupying 43.7% of the private land area. LULCC analysis revealed a net recovery of native forest (+10%) alongside notable increases in urban coverage (+152%) and exotic plantations (+245%). Legal water demand almost doubled, with 68% of consumptive rights concentrated in subdivided properties. These findings highlight property subdivision as an important factor influencing socioecological change in the territories that surround PAs. We argue that subdivision dynamics can serve as an early indicator for anticipating land use pressures and can complement integrated landscape-scale planning, consistent with the transformative change approaches advocated by international biodiversity frameworks.