Abstract

The EAT-Lancet diet has been proposed as a reference for achieving healthier and more sustainable food consumption patterns. However, its adoption presents economic and behavioral challenges, particularly in middle-income countries. While previous studies have primarily examined this diet's health and environmental benefits, limited research has analyzed the economic trade-offs and welfare implications associated with its adoption. This study addresses these gaps by evaluating the affordability and consumer welfare effects of transitioning to the EAT-Lancet diet in Chile. Using the Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) model, we estimate household food consumption and expenditure patterns and simulate the price adjustments required to align Chilean diets with EAT-Lancet recommendations. To assess the economic feasibility and welfare impacts of this transition, we construct three scenarios: (i) consumption follows the EAT-Lancet guidelines at adjusted prices, (ii) current Chilean consumption patterns persist but with EAT-Lancet-calibrated prices, and (iii) EAT-Lancet recommended under current market prices. Our results indicate that High-income households could reduce their food expenditures under this diet, while middle- and low-income households would face increased costs unless price interventions are implemented. Additionally, despite affordability improvements, high-income consumers often do not transition toward the recommended diet, suggesting behavioral factors beyond price influence food choices. These findings highlight the need for targeted policy interventions rather than a one-size-fits-all approach. Strategies such as subsidies for nutrient-dense foods, taxes on unsustainable food products, and behavioral nudges could facilitate the adoption of the EAT-Lancet diet while minimizing welfare losses.