Abstract

The increasing global demand for low-carbon energy sources has intensified interest in solid biofuels, such as pellets, particularly in regions with abundant biomass availability like Latin America. However, methodological and regulatory challenges persist in assessing their carbon footprint and integrating them into carbon credit schemes. This study presents BioCalc, a novel computational tool adapted from the Brazilian RenovaCalc model to quantify the carbon intensity of solid biofuels under a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) framework. The tool incorporates harmonized emission factors, land use change modeling, and cradle-to-grave system boundaries to enable robust assessments. Three biomass sources-peanut shell, Pinus, and Eucalyptus-were analyzed across domestic, export, and mixed market scenarios. BioCalc calculated carbon intensity and potential decarbonization credits (CBIOs) using three LCA approaches: standard attributional LCA, Circular Footprint Formula (CFF), and zero-burden assumption. Results revealed substantial emission reductions-up to 97 % compared to fossil fuels-and highlighted methodological sensitivities in credit quantification, with CFF yielding the highest economic potential. National production forecasts were evaluated, projecting up to USD 103.9 million in revenues under specific conditions. This research provides a policy-aligned, science-based pathway for integrating solid biofuels into regulated and voluntary carbon markets. It strengthens the case for regulatory updates to include densified biomass fuels in Brazil's decarbonization strategies and offers a replicable model for advancing circular bioeconomy principles in the global energy transition.