Abstract

Predicting changes in the spatial distribution of marine resources under climate change (CC) is key for sustainability, since some species may change their historical fishing zones and/or the spatial boundaries set for managing fisheries. Chile is a leading country in fishing landings and products (e.g., fish oil and fishmeal). This productivity is influenced by the Humboldt Current, one of the most important upwelling systems. Although 70% of pelagic and demersal landings are caught in central-southern Chile (32° S–42° S), little is known about the impacts of CC on this ecosystem. Thus, we modelled the habitat suitability (HSM) for the main stocks in the area: anchovy, common sardine, Chilean hake, yellow prawn, carrot prawn and nylon shrimp. We projected the HSM for each species considering ocean abiotic conditions from 2040 to 2050 using Social Shared Pathways scenarios (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5) from Bio-Oracle. HSM exhibited high performance in predicting the current spatial variability for the six species. The CC projections indicated significant changes in the spatial distribution of all species (i.e., reduction in size, poleward shift, and deepening of core habitat), especially in common sardine, anchovy and carrot prawn. In the long term, these changes may affect the latitudinal boundaries set for managing fisheries, the design of stock assessment and catch monitoring programs, and fishing effort/costs in each fleet. These findings will help decision-makers, researchers and users to visualise the potential impacts of future environmental variability on the southern Humboldt ecosystem and to design plans and actions to adapt the management of Chilean fisheries to CC. © 2025 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.