Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic intensified urban migration to tourist areas, generating unplanned peri-urbanization pressures. This study analyzes land use changes in the peri-urban area of Villarrica-Pucón (Chile) under two scenarios to 2065: trend and new road projects, using the Dyna-clue model and satellite data (1998-2018). The results show an explosive growth of agricultural plots (3,208 ha in 2018 to 12,000 ha in 2065), occupying 8 times the current urban area, but with minimal influence of the projected roads on their location. This reveals that proximity to natural amenities (lake, volcano) predominates over road accessibility as an expansion factor. It is concluded that: (i) Chilean planning instruments are insufficient to regulate tourist peri-urbanization, (ii) transportation infrastructure is not the main driver of land use changes in lake contexts, and (iii) territorial management models that integrate landscape variables and natural risks are required. The study provides evidence for reorienting policies in areas under tourism-post pandemic pressure. © 2025, Universidad Nacional de Colombia. All rights reserved.