Site response effects on partially ergodic PSHA

Montalva G.A.; Rodriguez-Marek, A

Keywords: equations, motion, risk, waves, return, surfaces, prediction, surface, site, uncertainty, forecasting, motions, analysis, periods, assessment, probabilistic, offshore, effects, seismology, ground-motion, hazard, site-response, response, seismic, of, Materials, effect, Site-Specific, ground, pipelines, Near-surface, Ergodics, Geohazards


Near surface materials play an important role in modifying seismic waves, hence the uncertainty in their properties is significant to the surface ground motion uncertainty. A partially non-ergodic approach that removes the uncertainty associated with site response from the ergodic ground motion prediction equation, and then accounts for the epistemic site response uncertainty within a particular site is presented. Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) results show that for better characterized sites the uncertainty on surface ground motion can be drastically reduced with respect to the ergodic prediction. This effect is stressed when long return periods are examined. The presented approach also produces a reduction on the ground motion prediction bias due to the site-specific modeling of site response. © 2011 ASCE.

Más información

Título de la Revista: Geotechnical Special Publication
Número: 224 GSP
Editorial: Society of Laparoendoscopic Surgeons
Fecha de publicación: 2011
Página de inicio: 303
Página final: 309