Prospective study using archetypes and system dynamics

Vera P.; Nikulin C.; Lopez-Campos M.; Gonzalez Ramirez R.G.G.


Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a combination of forecasting methods that enables a holistic understanding of a future situation, given certain influencing variables by a combination of real data and expert knowledge. Design/methodology/approach The proposal combines two well-known methods: first, system archetypes that correspond to generic structures, allowing us to handle model management issues, and second, system dynamics that offers technical support on a computational level to assess different scenarios or problem solutions. Findings The case study considers the situation of the mining industry in Chile and its related variables, including four different scenarios. Based on the proposed methodology, the results indicate that: first, the price of copper is paramount for the industry and its effects are not limited to company profits; second, a long period of downfall in copper prices could halt exploration and development projects. Social implications The goal of prospective studies of large-scale and complex situations is to model the real situation to obtain solutions that may enhance social welfare. Originality/value The proposed methodology contributes to the existing literature by integrating techniques such as the Vester matrix, system archetype modelling and system dynamics simulation, all of which were proposed previously in the literature as independent techniques.

Más información

Título según WOS: Prospective study using archetypes and system dynamics
Título según SCOPUS: Prospective study using archetypes and system dynamics [Estudio prospectivo utilizando arquetipos y dinámica de sistemas]
Volumen: 32
Número: 2
Editorial: Emerald Group Publishing Ltd.
Fecha de publicación: 2019
Página de inicio: 181
Página final: 202
Idioma: English