On the heterogeneous spread of COVID-19 in Chile

Freire-Flores, Danton; Llanovarced-Kawles, Nyna; Sanchez-Daza, Anamaria; Olivera-Nappa, Alvaro

Abstract

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have played a crucial role in controlling the spread of COVID-19. Nevertheless, NPI efficacy varies enormously between and within countries, mainly because of population and behavioral heterogeneity. In this work, we adapted a multi-group SEIRA model to study the spreading dynamics of COVID-19 in Chile, representing geographically separated regions of the country by different groups. We use national mobilization statistics to estimate the connectivity between regions and data from governmental repositories to obtain COVID-19 spreading and death rates in each region. We then assessed the effectiveness of different NPIs by studying the temporal evolution of the reproduction num-ber Rt. Analysing data-driven and model-based estimates of Rt, we found a strong coupling of different regions, highlighting the necessity of organized and coordinated actions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we evaluated different scenarios to forecast the evolution of COVID-19 in the most densely populated regions, finding that the early lifting of restriction probably will lead to novel outbreaks. (C) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Más información

Título según WOS: On the heterogeneous spread of COVID-19 in Chile
Título de la Revista: CHAOS SOLITONS FRACTALS
Volumen: 150
Editorial: PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
Fecha de publicación: 2021
DOI:

10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111156

Notas: ISI