Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy

Ayala, Andres; Villalobos Dintrans, Pablo; Elorrieta, Felipe; Castillo, Claudio; Vargas, Claudio; Maddaleno, Matilde


The identification of COVID-19 waves is a matter of the utmost importance, both for research and decision making. This study uses COVID-19 information from the 52 municipalities of the Metropolitan Region, Chile, and presents a quantitative method-based on weekly accumulated incidence rates-to define COVID-19 waves. We explore three different criteria to define the duration of a wave, and performed a sensitivity analysis using multivariate linear models to show their commonalities and differences. The results show that, compared to a benchmark definition (a 100-day wave), the estimations using longer periods of study are worse in terms of the model's overall fit (adjusted R-2). The article shows that defining a COVID-19 wave is not necessarily simple, and has consequences when performing data analysis. The results highlight the need to adopt well-defined and well-justified definitions for COVID-19 waves, since these methodological choices can have an impact in research and policy making.

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Título según WOS: Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy
Título de la Revista: International #Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Volumen: 18
Número: 21
Editorial: MDPI
Fecha de publicación: 2021


Notas: ISI